Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a ...

Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Using the debt and equity response to the release of textual information from earnings calls, we demonstrate that stock and bond investors for the same firm interpret different aspects of firm ...

International trade policies remain in the spotlight given the recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies. Since trade critically affects employment, production, prices and ...

Zero Lower Bound Probabilities at Different Time Horizons uses prices of fixed-income derivatives to create a daily measure of the likelihood that future short-term interest rates will be constrained ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Note: This data page will no longer be updated. The latest estimates of pandemic-era excess savings are as of September 2024. Past data will continue to be available on this site. Pandemic-Era Excess ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...