China's steel exports are set to slump in the second quarter, threatening to exacerbate a supply glut at home, analysts and traders said, as the trade war and a wave of protectionism moving in its wake crimps export markets.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.