The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Delegations will meet this weekend in Switzerland for the first major talks between the world’s two biggest economies since Trump sparked a tariff war in his second term.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer will attend the talks, their offices announced. Since returning to the White House in January, President Donald Trump has imposed new import taxes on Chinese goods of up to 145%.